Histories of the Future: A Discussion with Jonathon Karelse - Ep 136


00:38 Introduction
01:42 What was your inspiration for writing Histories of the Future?
05:50 How do you define “forecasting”?
10:38 Is forecast accuracy the best way to measure the success of a forecast?
21:44 How does behavioral economics influence forecasting?
28:08 Discussion on unconscious bias, including Jonathon’s research and Joannes’ experiences.
40:36 Joannes’ thoughts on naked forecasts and their limitations.
45:36 How exactly does a greater understanding of behavioral economics improve the forecasting process?
54:55 Will AI developments in forecasting aid people or replace them?
01:04:05 What ideas might you include in your next book?
01:05:07 Does specialist knowledge of behavioral economics help to persuade executives?
01:11:15 Closing thoughts and Jonathon’s advice for supply chain practitioners.

Description

Histories of the Future: Milestones in the Last 100 Years of Business Forecasting, by Jonathon Karelse, charts the fascinating development of business forecasting tools, techniques and innovations over the last century. In this episode, we had the pleasure of hosting Jonathon and discussing several key themes from the book, including the best way to measure forecast quality, the subtle - though crucial - role of behavioral economics in demand analysis, and if AI (Artificial Intelligence) will replace humans in forecasting.

Jonathon Karelse is co-founder and CEO of NorthFind Managerment, a graduate of MIT Sloan School of Management, a published researcher in unconscious bias, as well as a member of the Harvard Business Review’s Advisory Council.