Lead-time forecasting - Lecture 5.3


00:00 Introduction
02:55 The case of lead times
09:25 Real-world lead times (1/3)
12:13 Real-world lead times (2/3)
13:44 Real-world lead times (3/3)
16:12 The story so far
19:31 ETA: 1 hour from now
22:16 CPRS (recap) (1/2)
23:44 CPRS (recap) (2/2)
24:52 Cross-validation (1/2)
27:00 Cross-validation (2/2)
27:40 Smoothing lead times (1/2)
31:29 Smoothing lead times (2/2)
40:51 Composing lead time (1/2)
44:19 Composing lead time (2/2)
47:52 Quasi-seasonal lead time
54:45 Log-logistic lead time model (1/4)
57:03 Log-logistic lead time model (2/4)
01:00:08 Log-logistic lead time model (3/4)
01:03:22 Log-logistic lead time model (4/4)
01:05:12 Incomplete lead time model (1/4)
01:08:04 Incomplete lead time model (2/4)
01:09:30 Incomplete lead time model (3/4)
01:11:38 Incomplete lead time model (4/4)
01:14:33 Demand over the lead time (1/3)
01:17:35 Demand over the lead time (2/3)
01:24:49 Demand over the lead time (3/3)
01:28:27 Modularity of predictive techniques
01:31:22 Conclusion
01:32:52 5.3 Lead time forecasting - Questions?

Description

Lead times are a fundamental facet of most supply chain situations. Lead times can and should be forecast just like demand. Probabilistic forecasting models, dedicated to lead times, can be used. A series of techniques are presented to craft probabilistic lead time forecasts for supply chain purposes. Composing those forecasts, lead time and demand, is a cornerstone of predictive modeling in supply chain.