Probabilistic Forecasting for Supply Chain - Lecture 5.2


00:01 Introduction
02:18 The modern forecast
06:37 Going postal probabilistic
11:58 The story so far
15:10 Probable plan for today
17:18 Bestiary of predictions
28:10 Metrics - CRPS - 1/2
33:21 Metrics - CRPS - 2/2
37:20 Metrics - Monge-Kantorovich
42:07 Metrics - likelihood - 1/3
47:23 Metrics - likelihood - 2/3
51:45 Metrics - likelihood - 3/3
55:03 1D distributions - 1/4
01:01:13 1D distributions - 2/4
01:06:43 1D distributions - 3/4
01:15:39 1D distributions - 4/4
01:18:24 Generators - 1/3
01:24:00 Generators - 2/3
01:29:23 Generators - 3/3
01:37:56 Please wait while we ignore you
01:40:39 Conclusion
01:43:50 5.2 Probabilistic forecasting for supply chain… - Questions?

Description

A forecast is said to be probabilistic, instead of deterministic, if it contains a set of probabilities associated with all possible future outcomes, instead of pinpointing one particular outcome as “the” forecast. Probabilistic forecasts are important whenever uncertainty is irreducible, which is nearly always the case whenever complex systems are concerned. For supply chains, probabilistic forecasts are essential to produce robust decisions against uncertain future conditions.