Uncertainty in Supply Chain, Lessons from the M5 Competition

00:08 Introduction
01:23 Lesson 1: Dolus Bonus is here to stay
04:38 Lesson 2: Numerology is here to stay
07:06 Lesson 3: Defeat the “unforcastable”
08:20 Lesson 4: Embrace your uncertainty
10:07 Lesson 5: Overfitting remains a disaster recipe
12:47 Lesson 6: Scale and scalability still matter
14:44 Conclusion


Joannes Vermorel outlines a short series of lessons to supply chain practitioners from the M5 Forecasting Competition. The M5 did offer a unique opportunity to do a reality check on the claims of the majority of the supply chain software vendors. This talk was given as part of the M5 Conference. The competition ran from March 2nd to June 30th 2020 with several thousands of teams competing on two sales forecasting tasks over a Walmart dataset.